On May 1, CNN weatherman Guillermo Arduino pointed to the western coast of the southeast Asian peninsula and noted that a cyclone was headed there and would make landfall in Myanmar.
Within two days Nargis ripped across north Myanmar and news broke of the worst natural disaster to hit the region since the 2004 tsunami.
A 3.5 metre wall of water flushed through the Irawaddy Delta, bringing with it winds at 190 km/h. 10,000 people perished in just one village. More have died since then.
The death toll from that tsunami was around 230,000 but the number of lives which Nargis will claim could exceed even that.
FOLLOWING NARGIS
Map from reliefweb
Just last November Cyclone Sidr had claimed more than 3,000 lives in Bangladesh, and authorities in Bangladesh had been keeping a close look on the eye of the storm in the Bay of Bengal since the beginning of the week it hit Myanmar. It had already gained enough intensity to be classified as a cyclonic storm after its windspeed reached 89 km/h.
At 6pm on April 28, it was around 1,200 km off the coast from Bangladesh's southeastern ports and coastal towns like Cox's Bazar, Chittagong and Mongla.
On April 29, local media reported that it was picking up momentum as it hovered in the Bay of Bengal.
"54 kilometres of the storm center, the met office said, is about 62 kmph, which may rise up to 88 kmph in gusts...The met office has said it is hard to be definite right now about the cyclone’s movement in the coming days.
The office mentioned that the cyclone might intensify further and move in a northerly direction towards the Bangladesh and Indian coast.
“Its tendency is to move in a northerly direction. But there is a possibility it may change its course and move in a northeast direction to hit the Bangladesh -Myanmar coast,” Arzumand Habib, the director of the metrological department, said.
Cyclone Nargis poised to strike in 4-5 days, April 29, Bangladesh News
On April 30, it continued to gain strength, as it bid its time.
A Met Office special bulletin said yesterday evening that Nargis was lying over west central Bay and adjoining southwest Bay 1,155km from Chittagong coast, 1090km away from Cox’s Bazar and 1,030km from Mongla coast with minimum sustained wind speed between 90kmph and 120kmph within the 54km radius of its centre.The first cyclonic storm since the deadly Sidr, Nargis is likely to intensify further.
“It is too early to comment about when and where the storm will hit. At this stage, a cyclonic storm frequently changes its course,” said Arzumand Habib, director of Dhaka Meteorological Office. “But probably it is going to hit the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast,” she said.
The Met Office said they will confirm today the possible time and place of the hit.
... If the wind speed crosses 120kmph, the storm will be categorised as “very severe” and if the wind speed crosses 150kmph, it will be labelled as “hurricane wind”, the Met Office sources said.
Warnings were given and the Bangladesh government made plans to evacuate people into cyclone shelters. But Nargis decided to give Bangladesh a miss to head for Myanmar, as officials had predicted it might.
According to the Met Office in Bangladesh, on the afternoon of May 2, it started to cross the Irawaddy delta coast at 6:00pm and would take the whole night to cross the coast and become weak. According to news agency reports, the storm centred 210km west of Haing Gyi Island at the mouth of the Irrawaddy river, about 430km southwest of Yangon.
Haing Gyi Island could not be contacted for further information after it was hit by 10-12 feet high tide, the report said.
The Myanmar meteorological department said it was yet to know if the storm caused any damage or casualties, AFP reported at 7:30pm yesterday.
By May 4 information trickling in from the affected areas, where communications were cut off. At least 243 people were killed and thousands homeless. On May 5, the death toll had shot up to 15,000.Nargis proceeded on to Thailand but had by then weakened and was not doing much damage.
For more information:
A BBC report on the path of Nargis, including satellite pictures
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