Day 22 May 23 2008, Friday

NGO Speak

"Than Shwe can be very charming and friendly when he wants to be... He speaks English quite well and they try to be hospitable when you are there; but they don't like intrusiveness. They don't like you asking about things that they consider to be their internal affairs."

Former United Nations special envoy Razali Ismail, in an interview last September

Latest Development

"All" aid workers will be let in: Myanmar

Reuters news agency reports that Myanmar's Senior General Than Shwe has agreed to let in "all" aid workers, after a meeting with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon.

First group of aid workers under ASEAN head to Myanmar

The Singapore Red Cross is preparing to leave for Myanmar with S$20,000 (US$14,710) worth of medical aid. The team is the first group of aid workers allowed to enter Myanmar from ASEAN nations in an agreement reached with Myanmar's military junta in Singapore on Monday.

Ten World Food Programme helicopters carrying three tons of food and aid supplies will head for the Irawaddy Delta region.

The WFP has also secured barges with individual capacities of between 200 and 600 tons to carry aid via the water ways. Road access is starting to clear but may not be reliable with the approaching monsoon rains.

A barge carrying supplies has been loaded in Yangon and is headed to Labutta .

It is loaded with 393.75 metric tons of rice, 37 tons of Veg Oil, 5 tons of MRE and 14.5 tons of NFIs from the WFP and 24.3 mt of NFIs from Merlin.

Donate to Merlin
Donate to the WFP

Donating to Non-Governmental Organisations operating in Myanmar

Please be warned of fraudulent individuals and groups capitalising on sympathy for cyclone victims.

AS THE SITUATION IN MYANMAR REMAINS FLUID, PLEASE CONTACT THE RESPECTIVE ORGANISATIONS TO ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE CONTINUED ACCESS BOTH TO THE COUNTRY AND TO THE AFFECTED AREAS.

On May 8, the Myanmar government invited three organisations to help in Nargis relief efforts. They are World Vision, UNICEF and JICA, the Japanese International Cooperation Agency. Other groups have also been working to help shoulder the burden of bringing basic supplies to the victims.

Those listed here - including the three approved by the Myanmar government on May 8 - are reputable aid organisations raising money to help the victims. For some of them, their charitable commitment ( percentage of income used for charitable purposes) for the year 2007 was calculated by Forbes Magazine in its list of 200 largest charities in the US. The calculations were only done on US groups; for international organisations, the score represents the one given to their US office.

From the Forbes report ( Forbes.com, America's 200 Largest Charities by William P Barrett, 11.21.2007)

Charitable Commitment: This measures how much of total expense went directly to the charitable purpose (also known as program support) as opposed to management, certain overhead and fundraising. The average this year is 85%, down 1%...

... We again warn against mindlessly comparing ratios of different kinds of nonprofits, as each has a certain degree of uniqueness. But our data certainly can be helpful in the early stages of an evaluation of any nonprofit--on our list or not. Say you're interested in contributing to a smaller agency that helps the needy overseas. The ratios of several similar larger ones on our list can provide a sense of the norms for such enterprises.

If you are interested in donating, please do contact the respective organisations to ensure the appeals are still going on. This is especially if you would like to offer help in kind, as they would be able to advise better what would be needed and their logistical capabilities in bringing your donations to those you intend to reach.


1. WORLD VISION

World Vision scored 87 % in the terms of charitable contribution in the Forbes 2007 list of 200 Largest Charities. It receives 29% of its funding from government support.

From an update on its website on May 22,

World Vision has been able to increase its humanitarian response on the ground in Myanmar by sending additional aid workers and supplies into the country, but increased access is still required to reach cyclone survivors in need of relief.

Five foreign staff with expertise in distribution, logistics, water and sanitation, and human resources arrived in Myanmar on May 20 — joining nearly 600 staffers who have been actively responding since the opening days of the cyclone.

In addition to technical experts, World Vision is sending in relief flights loaded with supplies, including 2.3 million water purification tablets, 5,000 tarps, 5,000 kitchen sets, 5,000 hygiene kits, 2,000 mosquito nets, and two water purification systems that can purify up to 4,000 gallons of water per hour. Up to this point, we had been reaching survivors with relief items purchased in-country.

Two flights have already landed from Singapore, and one flight is scheduled from Frankfurt via Bangkok. An additional flight from Singapore is being scheduled for next week.

"We are seeing positive indications that the channels of relief into Myanmar are opening up," said Steve Goudswaard, World Vision's Cyclone Nargis response manager.

"We are hopeful that in the coming days, we will be able to begin expanding our humanitarian aid operation to reach even more survivors with food, water, and medical care. There is an urgent need on the ground, and we cannot wait any longer."

How you can help:

1.Donate online

2. Locate and donate at your closest World Vision office


2. UNICEF

UNICEF is not rated by the Forbes report.

UNICEF will need a initial sum of US$8.2 million to help victims over the next TWO months.

These include $1.9 million for health and nutrition, 1.5 million for water, sanitation and hygiene, $2.5 million for education, $800,000 for child protection and $1.5 million for non-food items.

Click here for a detailed report on the needs on the ground and what has been done by UNICEF so far.

How you can help:

Donate online to UNICEF's efforts in Myanmar
Select "Myanmar Emergency"

Contact:

Mailing address:
UNICEF
P.O Box 1435,
Yangon, Myanmar

Office address:
14th and 15th floor, Traders Hotel
No 223 Sule Pagoda Road
Kyauktada Township
Yangon, Myanmar

Tel: 95-1-375 527, 95-1-375 532
Fax: 95-1-375552
Email: yangon@unicef.org



3. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

The IFRC is not rated by the Forbes report.

A May 19th statement from its official site:

The amount of Red Cross Red Crescent aid going into cyclone devastated Myanmar will increase significantly this week, with the announcement of five 40-ton charter flights scheduled to depart from Kuala Lumpur for Yangon.

“The needs of survivors in large parts of the country remain acute… These larger flights will make our operations more cost and time-effective, and most importantly enable us to send more aid into Myanmar,” said Igor Dmitryuk, Head of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies’ regional logistics unit in Kuala Lumpur.

Twenty-five Red Cross Red Crescent flights have already arrived in Yangon carrying a total of 302 tons of essential relief items. This week’s additional flights will see at least a further 230 tons arrive in country, though more flights are being arranged and confirmed every day. Most of these flights have originated in Kuala Lumpur, with some coming from other regional and global hubs.

With wet and rainy conditions threatening to bring further anguish to the hundreds of thousands of people suffering from the devastation caused by Cylone Nagris, this increased momentum is particularly important, explained John Sparrow, the International Federation’s spokesman in Bangkok.

“We are now scaling up our operations in Myanmar, and distributing more and more relief to areas devastated by the cyclone in and around Yangon and in the delta,” said Sparrow.

“Emergency shelter and access to clean water remain priorities. While the relief pipeline we have established will help us to reach more people, more is needed if we are to avert a catastrophe on an even greater scale.”

The Red Cross Red Crescent relief pipeline has so far carried 42,000 mosquito nets, 36,000 tarpaulins, shelter kits for around 35,000 people, over 20,000 jerry cans, and over 7,000 kitchen kits into Yangon.

More importantly, from distribution points in Yangon, Myanmar Red Cross volunteers have worked tirelessly to distribute more than 180,000 water purification tablets, 28,000 litres of clean drinking water, 23,000 items of clothing, and 12,000 jerry cans to tens of thousands of cyclone survivors in affected areas, including Laputta and Bogale.

On May 22, the International Red Cross office in Thailand announced that a relief team of 30 doctors and nurses had been admitted into Myanmar to help for two weeks. On May 14, it also issued a statement saying two shipments of relief supplies had been flown in.

The Thai Red Cross relief supplies of over 10 tons have arrived in Myanmar flown in with the cooperation of Royal Thai Air Force on 10 May when the first aid shipment was sent on 8 May 2008. The second shipment consisting of food, household medicines, plastic sheets, tents, generators, water filters and other necessities for life were handed over to the President of the Myanmar Red Cross by the Thai Ambassador and representatives of the Thai Red Cross at the airport in Yangon. Most of the relief supplies were procured at the Myanmar Red Cross request based on needs of the victims particularly the electricity generators which will be used at hospitals to facilitate surgery for the injured.

Also, the Thai Red Cross has mounted a cash appeal focused on sending help to alleviate suffering of the victims. The appeal has received good response from the public and the Thai Red Cross plans to send a donation for the amount of US$ 100,000 to Myanmar Red Cross to support its relief operations.

At the Thai Red Cross warehouse, about 6 million bottles of drinking water together with more relief goods are ready to be sent to Myanmar Red Cross if the problem of logistics can be overcome.

How you can help:

1. Donate online to the IFRC's relief efforts in Myanmar

2. Carry out a bank transfer to the Red Cross office in neighbouring Thailand via:

Account: TRC-Natural Disaster (Myanmar)
A/C No: 045-3-04285-5
Siam Commercial Bank PCL.
Sapakachat Thai Branch
SWIFT CODE: SICOTHBK

Contact:

ICRC regional delegation in Thailand
20 Sukhumvit Road, Soi 4
Soi Nana Tai
BANGKOK 10110
(Covers Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam, Thailand)

Tel.: (+662) 251 04 24 / 251 52 45 / 251 29 47
Fax: (+662) 253 54 28
Email: bangkok.ban@icrc.org


4. AmeriCares

AmeriCares scored 99% in the terms of charitable contribution in the Forbes 2007 list of 200 Largest Charities. It receives 0% of its funding from the government.

Released on its website on May 22,

The government of Myanmar today cleared for entry a life-saving shipment of medicines and medical supplies airlifted to Yangon by AmeriCares - a nonprofit international aid organization. The relief package will be distributed in partnership with International Organization for Migration (IOM), an organization that helps ensure the orderly and humane management of migration and provides practical solutions to migration problems faced by refugees and internally displaced people, including health care services. IOM will be operating 10 mobile clinics serving the victims of the cyclone in their communities, including the Irrawaddy delta region. AmeriCares medicines and supplies will enable not only IOM to restore health and save lives throughout Myanmar, but will provide essential medicines to other NGOs serving the ravaged areas.

...The shipment, which arrived from Amsterdam, contains 15 tons of medicines such as antibiotics, analgesics, ointments and multivitamins as well as medical equipment and supplies to treat the immediate needs of those injured and to help prevent the anticipated spread of illness and disease throughout the region. The medicines and supplies will allow healthcare workers in Myanmar to treat injuries and illnesses associated with cyclones including, lacerations, trauma, puncture wounds, water-borne diseases, diarrheal diseases, malaria and help prevent the outbreak of cholera.

This airlift will be the first of many deliveries AmeriCares will make to help the victims of the cyclone. "We're hearing from our colleagues on the ground that clean water and emergency medicines and medical supplies are desperately needed to prevent further death and widespread diseases," says Welling. "AmeriCares shipment contains the supplies urgently needed to help ease suffering and restore health to the victims of Cyclone Nargis."

How you can help:

Donate online to AmeriCares

5. JICA

The Japan International Cooperation Agency is not ranked by the Forbes report.

Technically JICA does not fall into the category of Non-Governmental Organisations. It is the disbursement agency of Japan's Official Development Assistance. However it is listed here on account of it being one of the three agencies designated as operational partners in cyclone relief efforts by the Myanmar government.

The updates are only available in Japanese on their official site but there is an introduction of the work they do in other languages.

Contact:

JICA Regional Support Office for Asia
1674/1 New Petchburi Road, Bangkok 10320, THAILAND
(C/O JICA THAILAND OFFICE, 1674/1 New Petchburi Road, Bangkok 10320, THAILAND)
Tel: +66-2-2511655
Fax: +66-2-2558086

Other international offices



6. Malteser International

Malteser International is working to send another plane carrying relief items from itself as well as other organisations in Germany, under the request of the German foreign service.

In an update posted on its website on May 21,

The three “Emergency Health Kits” sent to Myanmar last week with a plane of the Ger-
man Federal Technical Agency (Technisches Hilfswerk - THW) could be cleared without
any difficulty and have been delivered to Labutta and Yangon. In Labutta, Malteser In-
ternational meanwhile is running two emergency health stations in two camps hosting
12,000 internally displaced people and is organising an additional mobile medical team to
do outreach activities. In addition, we have built more than 30 latrines and are up to build
100 more of them thus securing hygiene and safe drinking water.

In the following days, two water purification units will be installed, one in the hospital of
Labutta and one in Labutta town, which will serve 25,000 people/per day with clean
drinking water including the internally displaced people in two camps.

How you can help:

You may carry out a bank transfer to :

Bank fur Sozialwirtschaft
Sort Code 370 205 00
Account N° 120 120 120
IBAN: DE 49 3702 0500 0001 0258 01
BIC BFSWDE33XXX
Reference: Cyclone Nargis

Contact:

228/1 Sukhumvit Soi 65 Watana - Bangkok 10110 - Thaïland
Tél: +662.3912108
E-mail: embsmomth@gmail.com
Website: http://www.orderofmalta.org


7. World Emergency Relief

Information from its audited report for year ending 31 March 2007 show that theWorld Emergency Relief is a British-registered "non-denominational faith-based Christian charity". About 99% of its funds are derived from voluntary donations, and 82 % of its funds go towards cash or gift grants for its causes.

Latest update as at 20 May

Emergency medical packs which were air-freighted by World Emergency Relief (WER) to victims of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (Burma) have been successfully cleared through customs and are right now being distributed to emergency mobile health clinics in the devastated Irawaddy delta area.

Each Doctor Emergency Medical Pack (DEMP) contains basic antibiotic, antiseptic and general medical supplies specifically selected for emergency situations and provides approximately 1500 treatments. The packs are specifically prepared so that doctors and nurses can quickly have basic supplies available while they make assessments for additional specific medical requirements, including pharmaceuticals, medicines and water purification supplies.

Up to 134,000 people are missing or feared dead following the massive cyclone which struck Myanmar on 2nd and 3rd May 2008. Millions of people are now homeless and in desperate need of humanitarian assistance.

WER air-freighted the emergency medical packs, which are valued at £80,000 and were donated to WER by International Health Partners (IHP), to Myanmar last Friday (16th May 2008). The packs were received by local aid agency ADRA Burma within 24 hours of arriving in the country.

WER is working in close partnership with ADRA Burma to provide essential medical and pharmaceutical supplies for emergency mobile clinics in the Labutta region of the Irawaddy delta, an area severely devastated by the cyclone.

Reports to WER from ADRA Burma indicate that more than fifty percent of hospitals and medical facilities in Labutta have been entirely destroyed by the cyclone and medical supplies are rapidly running out of stock.

WER is now preparing to air-freight over £1 million worth of further medical and pharmaceutical supplies within the next 3 weeks. These supplies have been donated to WER by IHP and major pharmaceutical companies.

How you can help:

Donate online

Contact:

Tel:+44 (0)844 249 2129
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7839 8202
Email: info@wer-uk.org

Diplomacy and Myanmar : The way to go?

The most famous Myanmese, long before Aung San Suu Kyi, was probably former Secretary-General of the United Nations, U-Thant. He was unanimously returned for a second term by the General Assembly and remembered largely for his tireless efforts in using diplomacy to resolve crises.

U-Thant had played a significant role mediating between Russia and the United States during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1963 which was successfully diffused. But that same tactic he used later in 1967 to try resolve escalating tensions between Egypt and Israel, after the UN under him withdrew peacekeepers in the Sinai peninsula buffer zone between the two sides, was criticised for contributing to the outbreak of the Six Day War.

The lesson to be learnt perhaps is that diplomacy doesn't always work. Still could his be the way to engage the Myanmese government of today?

As far back as 1991, Myanmar's neighbours which formed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations departed from Western attitudes towards Myanmar. While there were calls for sanctions against the military government, ASEAN opted instead for a policy of "constructive engagement".

Aung San Suu Kyi had called on ASEAN to " persuade or put pressure on the present regime to convene the parliament that was elected by the people". She would have become prime minister following her National League for democracy's victory in the 1989 elections, but the military nullified the results. In response, Thailand's deputy foreign minister then, Sukhumbhand Paribatra put forth a stance of "constructive engagement" and that a policy of exclusion would not achieve the desired outcome.

ASEAN has traditionally adopted a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of member nations. Apart from that though, individual countries have also had to balance their own national geo-political and economic interests in resource-rich Myanmar. This was after all their own backyard. But the issue of Myanmar sets new precedents. The military government repeatedly placing Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest is a constant source of international embarrassment, so much so that the group has threatened to expel Myanmar.

But patience appears to have paid off for Myanmar's neighbours, long-suffering on the international stage. ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Singapore to discuss just how to help Myanmar in the wake of Cyclone Nargis agreed to establish an ASEAN-led coordinating mechanism.

This mechanism will draw on the Indonesian experience during the 2004 Tsunami, and "facilitate the effective distribution and utilization of assistance from the international community, including the expeditious and effective deployment of relief workers, especially health and medical personnel."

"... International assistance to Myanmar, given through ASEAN, should not be politicised. On that basis, Myanmar will accept international assistance. ( italics added)

To this end, the Ministers agreed to establish a Task Force, to be headed by ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan, which will work closely with the UN as well as a central coordinating body to be set up by Myanmar, to realize this ASEAN-led mechanism. The meeting agreed that this ASEAN-led approach was the best way forward.

For a start, the Myanmar Government has agreed to accept the immediate despatch of medical teams from all the ASEAN countries. ASEAN has sent an Emergency Rapid Assessment Team to Myanmar and is ready to provide additional support. Myanmar should allow more international relief workers into the stricken areas, as the need is most urgent, given the unprecedented scale of the humanitarian disaster."

Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting Chairman's Statement
Singapore, 19 May 2008

For now it appears that a compromise has been reached and most importantly the first thrust of much needed foreign aid may finally be getting into Myanmar.

Another View

Thant Myint-U is one of the world's foremost experts on his native Myanmar. The former fellow at Trinity College, Cambridge, UK offered up an explanation for the military government's seemingly inexplicable stance on foreign aid.

In a thoughtful piece in May 22's International Herald Tribune, he wrote,

"... the actions of the generals should also come as no surprise.

Myanmar's ruling junta is not simply a military government. At its core is a security machine developed over a half- century of civil war and foreign intervention. Everything is viewed through a security lens.

The idea of throwing open the country's borders to international aid teams goes against the most basic instincts of the men in power. It will never happen."

For them it is a case of protecting national sovereignty, and therein lies the paradox. For several potential donor nations, there is no legitimacy for a government that denies its people its democratically-elected representative, Aung San Suu Kyi.

The word the United States choose to describe those running Myanmar right now is a "regime". When Washington uses that word, even a fifth-grader can tell us from very recent history that chances are, someone in the US capital is "gunning" (forgive the pun) for change.

Especially when you consider that among other governments labelled regime are, well, Iran and Cuba. (Enough said.)

So is it any wonder that the generals are spurning the Good Americans at their door. When Uncle Sam wants regime change, Uncle Sam gets it. Uncle George makes pretty sure of that.

What about the other Western government then? Now, there is Britain, Myanmar's former colonial masters, which insists - as does the BBC and other international media - on still calling it "Burma". It may seem petty but surely London cannot expect the generals to be too receptive towards a country that refuses to acknowledge what they decree as the country's rightful name, that by the way, even the United Nations accepts. (Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon being the first world leader to be physically in Myanmar inspecting the affected region may just back that theory up.)

But before this descends into a squabble over words that neglects the real problem at hand, the point to be made here is that those held at arm's length by the generals do to a certain extent only have themselves to blame.

In the same article, Mr Thant pointed out that Myanmar is just now "emerging from decades of armed conflict, where aid has long been politicized and where the urgent tasks of emergency relief may soon be coupled with the immeasurably more complex challenges of recovery and reconstruction."

"As early at 1990, Rolf Carriere, then Unicef director in Yangon argued that there was a desperate need for humanitarian and development aid in Myanmar, and that it could not wait for democratic change.

His call went largely unheeded. The military government pleaded for assistance, especially from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to reform the economy. But Western governments had just begun to impose sanctions in the hope of nudging the junta towards democracy, and nearly all aid - including through the UN - was cut off."

Would the military government - in power since 1989 - be like a woman scorned? The world is waiting, as are the thousands starving, dying in the flooded regions.

All this underscores a deeply-entrenched distrust for Western governments on the part of the military government, and this is something that may take more than a cyclone to unroot.

Weekly update: May 16 - 22

May 16

Myanmar announces that 92.4 % have voted "yes" in a referendum where the turnout was 99%. Those in the Irawaddy region hit by Cyclone Nargis will only vote on 24 May but the high approval percentage renders their votes useless.


May 17

60 UN officials and foreign diplomats have been flown to three places in the affected Irawaddy region.

A French navy ship loaded with food, clean water and medication is not given permission to dock. However a Thai medical team of 32 and an Indian team of 50 have been allowed into Myanmar to help with relief efforts.

The official death toll is revised to just under 78,000.


May 18

16 days after the Cyclone struck, Myanmar's leader General Than Shwe visit the victims at refugee camp in Yangon. This is believed to be his first time he has seen the victims since the cyclone hit.

UN humanitarian envoy John Holmes meets with Myanmar's military leaders, bearing a letter from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. General Than Shwe is reported to have not replied to the UN chief's prior two letters or answered his calls.

Save the Children, a UK-based charity warns that 30,000 severely malnourished children under the age of 5 could be starve to death within weeks.


May 19

Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) announce after their meeting that Myanmar will agree to accept aid channelled through fellow ASEAN member countries. These include, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.

Myanmar declares three days of mourning for cyclone victims.

The World Bank states that it cannot send financial aid to Myanmar because of the country's unpaid debts.


May 20

Myanmar allows nine UN helicopters to fly into affected areas. They will be able to reach the as-yet inaccessible areas cut off by flooding.


May 21

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon arrives in Myanmar for talks with its leadership, including General Than Shwe.

Weekly update: May 9 - 15

“I’ve never seen an emergency situation such as this before. A week after the disaster, the entire humanitarian community is still sitting in another country, outside the affected area, looking for means to access the disaster zone.”

Greg Beck, Asia regional director of the International Rescue Committee.

May 9

John Holmes, the UN coordinator for humanitarian affairs, puts the death toll from Cyclone Nargis ranges from 63,000 to 100,000. The Myanmar government's announced toll is 22,000.

At a special session at the United Nations, the Myanmar ambassador says they will " accept aid from any corner". The UN has issued a "flash appeal" to its members to raise US$187.3 million in cyclone relief for Myanmar. Based on a quick assessment by more than 20 organizations, and it includes $56 million for food, nearly $50 million for logistics and about $20 million for shelter.

WFP resumes suspended air cargo deliveries, after two chartered plane loads of food aid were impounded in Yangon.

“Myanmar has got to open itself up to a major international effort very soon if we are not to face a second disaster, where infectious diseases and other problems start to take a significant toll.”

Richard Horsey, spokesman for a UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

The Myanmar government says it welcomes aid but not aid workers. However it is appearing to be more receptive to nationals of ASEAN countries. Aid workers holding Southeast Asian passports are being admitted into Myanmar more readily than others.

International discussions are underway on how to get aid into Myanmar. A proposal to issue a UN resolution forcing Myanmar to open its doors to aid has been rejected by China and Russia, saying it infringes national sovereignty. Calls have also been made to airdrop rations.


May 10

Myanmar goes ahead with referendum on a new constitution which guarantees 25 percent of parliamentary seats to the military. It will also allow the president to hand over all power to the military in a state of emergency and effectively bar Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from public office.

The referendum was held in most areas of the country but has been postponed for two weeks in places hit by the cyclone.


May 11

The first American airlift of 2,800 pounds of relief items land in Myanmar, with two more plane loads scheduled to arrive. US aid has now been raised to $16.25 million. The Myanmar government took control of the supplies, loading them onto helicopters when they arrived.


May 12

International attention shifts as a deadly earthquake hits Sichuan, China.


May 13

Myanmar's officials are accused by local aid groups of pilfering aid supplies and selling them on the black market. Survivors are also said be to be given poor-quality rations, with those distributing hoarding donations.


May 14

United Nations warns that death toll could now exceed 100,000, and estimates that 2.5 million have been affected.

Rains could severely worsen the flooding in cyclone-hit areas. 12 cm of rainfall is expected over the next few days. Hundreds of thousands are already stranded homeless without shelter.


May 15

Myanmar's government says that legal action will be taken against those who hoard aid supplies.

The official death toll is raised to 43,318. 27,838 are said to be missing.

Aid groups say they are not allowed beyond Yangon. Police are turning back foreigners at the city's checkpoints. ( Source: CNN)

Weekly update: May 2 - 8

May 4, Sunday

A state of emergency is declared in five areas : the city of Yangon, Irrawaddy, Pegu and the states of Karen and Mon. All flights to Yangon, the former capital, are cancelled.

Water and power supplies to most affected areas remain cut off. Cell phone and landline networks are down.


May 5, Monday

Myanmar government summon diplomats as it launches an appeal for international aid. Thailand has already received aid request.

15,000 believed to be dead, 10,000 in the township of Bogalay alone.

US First lady Laura Bush cites the lack of warning as the latest example of "the junta's failure to meet its people's basic needs." (CNN, May 5), begging comparison to the Bush administration's much-criticised response to Hurricane Katrina. Many unable to heed evacuation orders issued were neglected and survivors were stranded in squalid conditions without basic necessities for days. New Orleans' top emergency management official called the relief effort a "national disgrace".


May 7, Wednesday

State media: 22,464 confirmed killed in in disaster, 41,ooo homeless.

Governments pledge aid:

The United States ups offer from US$ 250,000 to $3 million. Britain promises £5 million ($9.9 million)

The European Union pledges 2 million euros ($3.1 million). China gives $1m.

France is limiting its financial aid to 200,000 euros ($310,000)

"It's not a lot, but we don't really trust the way the Burmese ministry would use the money," said French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, also co-founder of relief group Medicins sans Frontieres in 1971

(source : BBC)

The BBC also reports that Unicef has warned "survivors faced poor sanitation and a lack of access to clean water, as well as the threat of diseases such as malaria, cholera and dysentery.

"In some areas we know that the areas are still completely under water, under salt water... some people have absolutely no drinking water and food."

Andrew Kirkwood, Myanmar country director for Save the Children

May 8

Aid agencies are being frustrated by Myanmese bureaucracy.

Foreign aid workers are unable to enter the country pending visa approvals. Three UN flights from Bangkok, Dhaka and Dubai with 40 tonnes of high energy biscuits awaiting clearance by Burmese authorities finally land in Yangon.

China increases aid to US$ 5.3 million.

Myanmar's neighbours Thailand and India have managed to send aid planes.

Survivors in the Irawaddy region are stranded without shelter, clean water and food. Foods to the region are reported to be empty with no aid heading their way.

Background brief on Nargis

On May 1, CNN weatherman Guillermo Arduino pointed to the western coast of the southeast Asian peninsula and noted that a cyclone was headed there and would make landfall in Myanmar.

Within two days Nargis ripped across north Myanmar and news broke of the worst natural disaster to hit the region since the 2004 tsunami.

A 3.5 metre wall of water flushed through the Irawaddy Delta, bringing with it winds at 190 km/h. 10,000 people perished in just one village. More have died since then.

The death toll from that tsunami was around 230,000 but the number of lives which Nargis will claim could exceed even that.


FOLLOWING NARGIS

Map from reliefweb

Just last November Cyclone Sidr had claimed more than 3,000 lives in Bangladesh, and authorities in Bangladesh had been keeping a close look on the eye of the storm in the Bay of Bengal since the beginning of the week it hit Myanmar. It had already gained enough intensity to be classified as a cyclonic storm after its windspeed reached 89 km/h.

At 6pm on April 28, it was around 1,200 km off the coast from Bangladesh's southeastern ports and coastal towns like Cox's Bazar, Chittagong and Mongla.

On April 29, local media reported that it was picking up momentum as it hovered in the Bay of Bengal.

"54 kilometres of the storm center, the met office said, is about 62 kmph, which may rise up to 88 kmph in gusts...

The met office has said it is hard to be definite right now about the cyclone’s movement in the coming days.

The office mentioned that the cyclone might intensify further and move in a northerly direction towards the Bangladesh and Indian coast.

“Its tendency is to move in a northerly direction. But there is a possibility it may change its course and move in a northeast direction to hit the Bangladesh -Myanmar coast,” Arzumand Habib, the director of the metrological department, said.

Cyclone Nargis poised to strike in 4-5 days, April 29, Bangladesh News

On April 30, it continued to gain strength, as it bid its time.

A Met Office special bulletin said yesterday evening that Nargis was lying over west central Bay and adjoining southwest Bay 1,155km from Chittagong coast, 1090km away from Cox’s Bazar and 1,030km from Mongla coast with minimum sustained wind speed between 90kmph and 120kmph within the 54km radius of its centre.

The first cyclonic storm since the deadly Sidr, Nargis is likely to intensify further.

“It is too early to comment about when and where the storm will hit. At this stage, a cyclonic storm frequently changes its course,” said Arzumand Habib, director of Dhaka Meteorological Office. “But probably it is going to hit the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast,” she said.

The Met Office said they will confirm today the possible time and place of the hit.

... If the wind speed crosses 120kmph, the storm will be categorised as “very severe” and if the wind speed crosses 150kmph, it will be labelled as “hurricane wind”, the Met Office sources said.

Nargis gathers strength, moves slowly, 30 April, Bangladesh News

Warnings were given and the Bangladesh government made plans to evacuate people into cyclone shelters. But Nargis decided to give Bangladesh a miss to head for Myanmar, as officials had predicted it might.

According to the Met Office in Bangladesh, on the afternoon of May 2, it started to cross the Irawaddy delta coast at 6:00pm and would take the whole night to cross the coast and become weak. According to news agency reports, the storm centred 210km west of Haing Gyi Island at the mouth of the Irrawaddy river, about 430km southwest of Yangon.

Haing Gyi Island could not be contacted for further information after it was hit by 10-12 feet high tide, the report said.

The Myanmar meteorological department said it was yet to know if the storm caused any damage or casualties, AFP reported at 7:30pm yesterday.

By May 4 information trickling in from the affected areas, where communications were cut off. At least 243 people were killed and thousands homeless. On May 5, the death toll had shot up to 15,000.

Nargis proceeded on to Thailand but had by then weakened and was not doing much damage.

For more information:

A BBC report on the path of Nargis, including satellite pictures